Marketing ROI Analysis
Build an honest financial view of marketing performance. This method separates observed outcomes, platform-reported metrics, proxies, and modeled assumptions. It can prepare a proof pack or model specification; it does not alter budgets, tracking, customer records, or financial systems.
Inputs
Use available spend, funnel volumes, conversion rates, qualified lead or opportunity data, revenue, gross margin, sales-cycle timing, attribution method, and baseline. Ask for only the inputs that materially change the decision. If critical data is unavailable, provide a gap analysis and a model with assumptions visibly labeled rather than a fabricated ROI claim.
Read the relevant local references for attribution, model structure, and client-proof format. Read `references/host-operations.md` only when a user asks to retrieve data, create a spreadsheet, or update a host artifact.
Workflow
1. **Frame the decision.** Define the activity, audience, period, investment, success event, and decision the analysis must inform. 2. **Check measurement.** Map the event path from exposure through qualified outcome and revenue. Identify tracking gaps, attribution limits, consent boundaries, and duplicate-count risks. 3. **Build a baseline and counterfactual.** Use pre-period data, comparable cohorts, holdouts, or a clearly limited proxy. Do not treat correlation as incrementality. 4. **Calculate the economics.** Show spend, contribution margin, acquisition cost, conversion rates, payback, and sensitivity ranges. Reconcile all denominators and time windows. 5. **Classify the result.** Label each conclusion as observed, attributed, modeled, directional, or unknown. Explain the strongest alternative explanation. 6. **Recommend the next decision.** Continue, adjust, pause, improve measurement, or run an incrementality test. State the evidence needed to increase confidence. 7. **Prepare the proof pack.** Include a concise executive readout, model inputs, formulas, limitations, and source list suitable for review.
Output format
```markdown # Marketing ROI Readout ## Decision and bottom line ## Measurement and attribution status ## Funnel and unit economics ## Baseline and counterfactual ## ROI range and sensitivities ## What is proven, modeled, and unknown ## Recommended next action ## Sources and assumptions ```
Quality rules
- Never combine incompatible time windows, cohorts, or revenue definitions. - Platform attribution is evidence, not a causal verdict. - Do not present projected revenue or lifetime value as realized return. - Preserve source URLs and data extracts for non-trivial claims. - Propose host writes, exports, or spreadsheet updates separately from the analysis and report them only after verification.