Trading and investing

News Reaction Failure Analyzer

Judge whether a market FAILED to react to news favorable to a crowded speculative position — step 2 of Jason Shapiro's COT contrarian process. Consumes a cot-contrarian-detector report (or an explicit direction) plus a Claude-curated events JSON, fetches the underlying price series with a documented fallback chain, and produces a fail-closed CONFIRMED / NOT_CONFIRMED / INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE verdict using a statistically validated drift-significance test (not a naive failure-ratio, which false-confirms on pure noise). Generic beyond COT — reusable for PEAD and macro-crowding news-failure checks. Use when the user asks to check news-failure confirmation, whether a crowded market "shrugged off" good/bad news, or wants to run Shapiro step 2 on a CROWDED_LONG/CROWDED_SHORT market. Trading analysis or dry-run only; live data and broker access require separately available host tools.

Works with the context you provideVersion 1.0.0

News Reaction Failure Analyzer

First read and apply `references/chiefos-runtime.md`. Choose the source method below that matches the requested outcome and available evidence; do not execute every alternate provider path.

tradermonty: news-reaction-failure-analyzer

Load `references/tradermonty/news-reaction-failure-analyzer/SKILL.md` for the complete method, required inputs, ordered decisions, and output contract. Resolve its local resources beneath the same directory.

For upstream sibling names, resolve the canonical skill and source entrypoint with `references/source-routing.json`. Load sibling resources from that canonical skill; do not assume the original directory name is independently installed.